Beyond dual core

[Humpty]

As the calendar flips to 2007, we are firmly entrenched in the world of multicore processors. And based upon the confidential road maps of both Intel and AMD, it is clear that dual-core CPUs are only the launching point for the future of the microprocessor. In 2007, quad cores and even eight-core CPUs will be available. By 2009, there's a good chance that sixteen-core processors will be on the market.

 

As we enter 2007, five key questions regarding the pending year's CPU battle are on our minds:

 

1. Will AMD be able to continue its dominance in the U.S. desktop market?

2. How will Intel capitalize upon the success of Core 2?

3. Will AMD be able to match the success of Intel's Core 2 processors?

4. When will the market see true quad-core and even eight-core processors?

5. What surprises do the chip makers have up their sleeves?

 

Story

[Eldmannen]

1. AMD will probably continue to dominance the market, the CPU which AMD offers currently has less performance than Intel but AMD has made some deals with manufacturers such as Dell, etc and AMD has some cheap CPU's which will continue to be used in home PC, budget PC, office PC, etc.

 

2. Intel will continue on the successful Core 2 architecture. They will be shrinking the die, and going down to 45nm technology.

 

3. AMD currently cant, and the QuadFX isn't much to hooray for. When AMD releases the K8L architecture it will probably match Core 2 (and hopefully more than just match), but by then Intel will probably be near something new. Intel has had the lead now for quite some time, ever since the release of Core 2 Duo, and they will probably maintain that lead for quite a while.

 

4. AMD don't have any quad-core CPU yet. Intel had a quad-core, but its not a true quad-core since its two Core 2 Duo on one die. I aspect true quad-core CPU to come this year, so we soon there. AMD K8L will definitely be true quad-core. And 8 core will come soon too, but maybe first on the Xeon and Opteron lines.

 

5. Well, an new architecture takes a long time to make, so when they make one, they often research others at the same time, and before they finish one, they already working on its successor. AMD will have the K8L.

 

Before there was a MHz race, maybe now it moves to a core race of which can have the most cores.

 

Personally, I hope energy efficiency will be something taking into really great consideration. I hope to see CPU's which are more energy efficient. Use less power, generate less heat. Passively cooled CPU's would be awesome.

 

Intel has been on 65nm for a long time and will soon be down on 45nm. AMD has just recently went down to 65nm technology, so it will probably take them a long time before they will be down on 45nm.

After 45nm the next stop is 32nm. Intel is the world leading semiconductor and a much larger company than AMD so Intel will be first down to 45nm and then to 32nm.

After 32nm it will be hard to go down any further.

 

CPU's cant continue on silicon forever, sooner or later they have to switch material. Maybe optical processors? Speed of light...