No Hazelnut, I don't think so either. I think Bill Gates hears a different voice, telling him that the money is going to come from corporations, and individual users will, as they have always done, adapt.
Heck, he may be right. But, the horrific experiences arising from weaknesses in windows in the past decade may change that. Not for individuals, they will buy vista because it is cool, but for corporations, they won't buy it because of windows track record. At least until the individual users fine tune it.
That scraping sound you hear is me putting my soapbox back under the desk.
edit: Maybe he will offer a free downgrade to windows XP.